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A report by Tom Wojcik, published 21 September 2026, traces how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March has rippled into record oil prices, fuel shortages in France, and a looming global food crisis. Brent crude touched $108 on 24 September after Washington rejected Iran’s ceasefire road map. The report argues that thirty years of swapping buffers for dependencies left the world exposed when several chokepoints failed at once.
A report by Polish analyst Tom Wojcik, published on 21 September 2026, traces how a single closed shipping lane — the Strait of Hormuz, shut by Iran since March — has travelled simultaneously into fuel pumps in France, harvests across Europe and Africa, and this winter’s heating bills in Poland. The report, written from Warsaw with figures as of 26 September 2026, argues that the crises of 2026 are not separate events but one disruption moving through a system that spent thirty years trading stockpiles and armies for cheaper suppliers and guarantees.
According to the report, US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February, and since March Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Wojcik cites data showing tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent, and attributes to the International Energy Agency the description of it as the largest supply disruption the oil market has ever seen.
Oil prices illustrate the breakdown. A fragile ceasefire pulled prices back to pre-war levels in early summer before collapsing. By early September, Wojcik reports, Brent crude was near $97 a barrel, around $105 by mid-month, and it touched $108 on 24 September. On 22 September, Iran handed Washington a written road map proposing a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the American naval blockade. Washington rejected it; by one report cited by Wojcik, the US president expects to resume bombing after the November midterm elections.
The disruption is also producing outsized winners. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF rose more than 600 percent in the war’s first two months and was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, with day rates for some supertankers rising from under $100,000 to a record of about $860,000 on 10 September. Wojcik notes the fund’s own manager expects rates to fall if the strait reopens. Separately, Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year by the IEA’s count, pushing Russian refining output to a two-decade low; US diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time on 10 September, and Wojcik reports the American president has phoned Kyiv asking it to stop hitting diesel targets.
Why One Chokepoint Reaches Polish Kitchens
Wojcik’s central argument is structural: for thirty years, countries swapped buffers for dependencies because “a supplier is cheaper than a stockpile and a guarantee is cheaper than an army,” and when one dependency failed, it was replaced with another rather than rebuilt with reserves. In 2026, several of those dependencies were tested together. For Poland specifically — a country that, as he writes, borders Europe’s largest war since 1945, heats itself with coal and imported gas, and arms itself on borrowed money — the Hormuz closure arrives as diesel prices, smaller harvests and a winter heating bill at the same time.
The food dimension may be the most lasting. The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The World Food Programme estimates sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. Europe’s potato belt shows the mechanism in miniature: after last year’s glut, growers across Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less, then five heatwaves and a drought hit. Their growers’ organisation now expects a harvest down 25 percent, and in Belgium processing potato prices jumped from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
From French Pumps to Famine Baselines
The report examines a mid-September viral claim that France was running out of fuel. Official data, Wojcik writes, is less dramatic but more instructive: on 20 September, 15 percent of French stations had run out of petrol or diesel, up from 11 percent two days earlier, and 20 percent in the Grand Est region. About nine in ten dry stations belong to TotalEnergies, which caps petrol at €1.99 a litre — drivers fleeing record prices elsewhere emptied its tanks faster than trucks could refill them. The government rules out a shortage. Wojcik’s reading: a price cap meant as a cushion, in a system with no slack, turned a price shock into empty pumps.
The baseline for the food crisis was already severe. Wojcik notes that 2025 was the first year in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, and that funding for food assistance fell an estimated 59 percent between 2022 and 2025. The detour around the Gulf also runs through the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandab chokepoint, where Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month, complicating any rerouting of tanker traffic.
“Every generation believes it is living through the end of something. What is different in 2026 is that the crises have stopped arriving one at a time.”
— Tom Wojcik
What the Report Cannot Yet Confirm
Several developments remain unresolved. Whether the US resumes bombing Iran after the November midterms rests on a single report and on political decisions not yet taken. The fate of Iran’s proposed 60-day ceasefire and phased reopening of the strait is unknown. The IEA’s famine-adjacent food projections depend on oil prices staying high, which the tanker fund’s own manager doubts. Wojcik also cautions that official French fuel data understates gaps, since a station is counted as dry only when out of every petrol grade or out of diesel. The full food impact is delayed by design — fertiliser that arrives late cannot recover lost yield, so the system looks fine until smaller harvests come in, most likely in 2027.
Winter, Midterms and the 2027 Harvest
Watch three timelines. In the immediate term, the US midterm elections in November may determine whether military operations against Iran resume at larger scale. Through this winter, European heating demand and French pump availability will test how much slack remains in fuel distribution. Into late 2026 and 2027, the FAO warns that fertiliser scarcity will cut yields and tighten food supplies, with the World Food Programme’s estimate of up to 45 million more people in acute food insecurity hinging on oil prices. Wojcik’s report is the first in an apparent series tracking these threads; his figures are current to 26 September 2026.
Key Questions
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed?
As of the report’s figures (26 September 2026), yes. Iran proposed a 60-day ceasefire and phased reopening on 22 September, but Washington rejected the plan, and no reopening has occurred.
Is France actually running out of fuel?
No, according to the French government, which rules out a shortage. On 20 September, 15 percent of stations had run dry, concentrated at TotalEnergies stations whose €1.99 price cap attracted drivers fleeing higher prices elsewhere. The official count understates partial shortages.
Why would an oil blockade affect food?
The Strait of Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser. The FAO warns scarcity will cut yields through late 2026 and into 2027; fertiliser applied late cannot recover lost yield, so the damage appears with a delay.
Who is profiting from the crisis?
According to the report, tanker shipping. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September, and some supertanker day rates reached a record of about $860,000 — though the fund’s manager expects rates to fall if the strait reopens.
What could ease oil prices?
A durable ceasefire and reopening of the strait would relieve the main pressure, as the brief early-summer ceasefire showed by pulling prices back to pre-war levels. That ceasefire collapsed, and no new agreement is in place.
Source: hn
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